Africa’s Economy Is Gaining Momentum as AI Drives a Global Race for Energy and Critical Minerals

The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3% on October 6, from 4.0% in April. Nearly three-quarters of the region’s economies received upgrades. Growth reached 4.1% in 2025.

Nigeria is projected to grow 4.4%, with services expanding and oil production recovering. Ethiopia’s economy is forecast to grow 7.1%.

Copper production is increasing in Zambia, and mining remains a major source of economic activity in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Africa received about $70 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, its third-highest total since 1990 and about one-third above the continent’s long-term average.

AI infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy-transition industries accounted for 44% of global greenfield investment value in 2025, compared with 16% in 2020.

Announced investment in those industries rose from $109 billion to $576 billion over five years.

Energy and Critical Minerals Are Pulling Investment Into Africa

The Democratic Republic of Congo supplied about three-quarters of the world’s mined cobalt in 2025 and remained one of the largest copper producers.

Zambia produced about 890,000 tonnes of copper and has set a target of 3 million tonnes a year by 2031.

Ivanhoe Mines is expanding Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC. Copper production has also resumed at previously stalled operations in Zambia, where mining companies have announced further spending.

The IEA expects global copper demand to continue rising through 2040, driven in part by expansion of electricity networks and electric vehicles.

The Lobito Corridor would give mines in the DRC and Zambia another route to the Atlantic through Angola. Work includes upgrades to the existing railway in Angola and a planned connection from Zambia.

More than $20 billion is being invested in Guinea’s Simandou development. The project includes the iron-ore operations and about 600 kilometres of railway, with new port facilities built for exports. Annual production capacity is expected to reach about 120 million tonnes.

Gotion High-Tech is developing a battery gigafactory at Kenitra in Morocco with an initial investment of about $1.3 billion. The first phase is planned for 20 gigawatt-hours of annual battery capacity.

AI Is Adding Data Centres and Power to Africa’s Investment Pipeline

Johannesburg holds most of South Africa’s data-centre capacity. Teraco’s JB4 campus is designed for 50 megawatts of critical power, and Vantage plans 80 megawatts at JNB1.

Kasi Cloud is developing a data-centre campus in Lagos with planned capacity of up to 60 megawatts.

Equinix has continued spending on its Nigerian network since acquiring MainOne. Data-centre construction is also increasing around Nairobi, one of East Africa’s main internet connectivity hubs.

Nigeria’s unreliable grid makes electricity supply a separate requirement for large computing facilities.

South Africa has added generation following years of power shortages, but new data-centre developments still require substantial electricity connections.

The World Bank includes reliable electricity and digital infrastructure among the conditions needed for broader use of AI across Africa.

Financial services are already one area of adoption, while computing resources remain concentrated in a small number of markets.

Microsoft and G42 announced a $1 billion investment in Kenya that includes a data centre powered by geothermal energy and new cloud infrastructure.

Africa Is Building New Routes for Global Capital

China Energy reached a €659 million financing agreement in June for the 372-megawatt Songon power plant in Côte d’Ivoire.

Standard Chartered and Standard Bank are among the lenders, alongside financing backed by European export-credit agencies.

Nigeria’s InfraCredit has mobilised about $206 million from 19 domestic pension funds for naira-denominated infrastructure bonds.

The African Development Bank estimates that institutional investors across Africa hold more than $2 trillion in assets.

Africa paid $163 billion to service external debt in 2024, up from $61 billion in 2010. The African Development Bank began a programme this year to help governments prepare for and manage sovereign credit ratings.

The African Union is launching the Africa Credit Rating Agency in Port Louis, Mauritius, on October 7. AfCRA plans to rate sovereign borrowers, financial institutions and companies.

Twenty-three of the AU’s 55 member states currently have no rating from S&P Global, Moody’s or Fitch.

AfCRA is structured as a privately funded company, with governments barred from owning shares. Its revenue is expected to come from shareholders and rating activities.

Africa’s Next Growth Phase Is Moving Toward Strategic Industries

Africa’s economic outlook is improving, but the larger change will depend on how much new investment remains inside the continent after projects begin operating.

Mines generate more domestic value when transport, processing and industrial capacity are built around them.

New computing facilities have a wider economic effect when businesses can access reliable power and digital infrastructure.

That process is beginning in several markets, but it remains uneven. Much of Africa still exports commodities before the most valuable stages of production, while electricity shortages and expensive financing continue to limit industrial expansion.

Projects scheduled to enter production or expand later this decade give governments a chance to retain more of that activity.

More refining, manufacturing and power capacity would increase the share of investment that reaches African suppliers, workers and domestic industries.

The capital now being committed can raise production and strengthen the infrastructure available to other businesses.

How much of that investment becomes lasting economic capacity will become clearer as the current project pipeline moves into operation through 2030.