IEA Forecasts India’s Renewable Surge as China’s Global Market Share Declines

ACME Solar Holdings secured ₹1,571 crore in financing from India Infrastructure Finance Company in August 2026 for a 300-megawatt assured peak power project in Rajasthan.

The ₹2,123 crore development includes 1,350 megawatt-hours of battery storage and has a 25-year electricity purchase agreement with the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) at ₹6.28 per kilowatt-hour. The financing supports construction of a project designed to supply electricity during peak demand.

Torrent Power has a separate 300-megawatt wind project under development for SECI, with an estimated investment of ₹2,360 crore and commercial operation scheduled for November 2027.

The company secured the project award in June 2025 and subsequently included it in its construction pipeline. Its renewable development programme also includes a 450-megawatt supply commitment to its distribution business, with phased commissioning targets extending into March 2027.

India had 299.25 gigawatts of installed renewable electricity capacity at the end of September 2026, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

Solar accounted for 171.05 gigawatts and wind for 59.20 gigawatts. Between April and September, the country added approximately 20.79 gigawatts of solar capacity and 3.11 gigawatts of wind, extending its recent expansion beyond the projects still awaiting completion.

China’s electricity market is undergoing a pricing adjustment. Reforms introduced by the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration moved new renewable generation toward market-based electricity transactions from June 2025.

Competitive bidding now determines access to settlement arrangements for new projects, changing the revenue conditions facing solar and wind developers.

The International Energy Agency’s November 6 Renewables 2026 report forecasts that India’s renewable capacity additions during 2026–2031 will be 2.6 times those of the preceding six years, making it the second-largest growth market after China.

India’s contribution to worldwide renewable expansion is expected to approach 8.5%, while China’s share declines from more than 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% during the forecast period.

The IEA reduced its outlook for Chinese renewable capacity growth by almost 116 gigawatts after solar installations fell sharply following the pricing changes. China nevertheless remains the world’s largest market for new renewable capacity.

Indian Renewable Developers Secure New Generation Contracts

NTPC Renewable Energy signed a 1,200-megawatt solar power purchase agreement with PTC India on July 3, 2026. The contract establishes an electricity buyer for the proposed generation, although the announcement did not disclose the tariff, project investment or commissioning schedule.

NTPC is also bringing previously contracted capacity into operation. At its Kalasar development in Rajasthan, successive portions of a 650-megawatt solar project were declared commercially operational during September and October, including another 95.6 megawatts on October 30.

Adani Green Energy commissioned 5,051 megawatts of renewable capacity during the financial year ending March 2026, increasing its operational portfolio to 19.3 gigawatts.

Solar accounted for 3,409 megawatts of the additions, followed by 956 megawatts of hybrid generation and 686 megawatts of wind. At Khavda in Gujarat, the company’s operating capacity had reached approximately 10.8 gigawatts by September.

The wider development targets 30 gigawatts by 2029, leaving substantial construction and commissioning work within the IEA’s forecast period.

ReNew expects to complete another 1.6–2.4 gigawatts of renewable construction during the financial year ending March 2027, according to its November results.

The target covers projects advancing through its development programme rather than capacity already supplying electricity. ReNew’s financial outlook for the year includes adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of ₹105 billion–₹109 billion and cash flow to equity of ₹18 billion–₹22 billion, alongside the planned capacity additions.

The disclosures show different stages of India’s renewable expansion. Adani’s additions have entered operation, NTPC is combining new electricity contracts with phased commissioning, and ReNew has further construction scheduled before March 2027.

The timing of those projects will determine how much additional generating capacity enters India’s electricity system during the early years of the IEA’s forecast.

China’s Electricity Pricing Reforms Reshape Renewable Investment Returns

China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration introduced market-based electricity pricing for renewable generators under Document No. 136, issued in February 2025.

From June 1, newly commissioned solar and wind projects became subject to market trading, with eligible electricity volumes and settlement prices determined through provincial competitive bidding. Earlier projects retain access to arrangements linked to existing pricing policies.

By March 2026, 30 provincial-level jurisdictions had issued implementation rules and 29 had completed bidding. Developers sell electricity at market prices, with settlement adjustments available for eligible volumes under the new mechanism.

The prices and quantities covered differ between provinces, leaving new projects exposed to electricity-market revenues outside their settlement allocations.

China added 110.83 gigawatts of solar capacity between January and September 2026, approximately 54% less than during the corresponding period in 2025.

Wind installations reached 60.66 gigawatts. Despite the decline in new solar installations, the country’s operating capacity increased to approximately 1.31 terawatts of solar and 700 gigawatts of wind by September.

The National Energy Administration reported that wind and solar accounted for roughly one-third of energy-sector investment during the nine months.

The International Energy Agency expects China’s annual renewable capacity additions to recover gradually after 2026 but remain 13% below their 2025 level by 2031.

Renewable generation is projected to supply nearly half of the country’s electricity by then, compared with 37% in 2025. Solar’s contribution is forecast to increase from 11% to 20%, while wind rises from 11% to 15%.

Indian Solar Manufacturers Invest in New Cell and Module Factories

Waaree Energies began construction of a 10-gigawatt ingot and wafer manufacturing facility in Nagpur, Maharashtra, during 2026, with an estimated investment of ₹6,200 crore.

The company also commissioned three gigawatts of additional solar-module capacity at Samakhiali in Gujarat. Its manufacturing programme extends into solar cells and upstream components, although the Nagpur facility has yet to begin commercial production.

Vikram Solar opened a six-gigawatt module factory at Gangaikondan, Tamil Nadu, in August 2026. The company expects its adjoining nine-gigawatt TOPCon solar-cell plant to begin production in December, with commissioning planned in stages.

It has separately approved a nine-gigawatt ingot and wafer project targeted for the financial year ending March 2029. The first six-gigawatt phase requires an estimated ₹3,726 crore, extending the company’s investment beyond module assembly.

Premier Energies reported annual manufacturing capacity of 11.1 gigawatts for solar modules and 3.6 gigawatts for cells in May 2026. Its expansion plans include additional manufacturing facilities and investments in batteries, inverters and transformers.

The disclosed figures measure factory capacity rather than actual production, while the difference between module and cell capacity indicates that part of its manufacturing requirements must still be met through externally sourced components.

The International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2026 report forecasts that India will become the only country besides China capable of manufacturing every major component of the solar photovoltaic supply chain at scale by 2031.

Chinese producers are expected to retain their leading position in polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules. India’s planned ingot, wafer and cell factories remain at different stages of construction and commissioning, with their contribution to domestic supply dependent on the production capacity brought into operation.

India’s Renewable Expansion Faces Grid and Storage Investment Deadlines

India approved a ₹1,86,405 crore Green Energy Corridor Phase III programme on September 30, 2026, to develop transmission infrastructure for up to 135 gigawatts of renewable generation.

The programme includes ₹1,36,378 crore for state transmission networks and ₹50,000 crore for 50 gigawatt-hours of battery storage. Completion is targeted for the financial year ending March 2033, two years beyond the IEA’s renewable growth forecast period.

Power Grid Corporation of India issued procurement documents in October for a 765-kilovolt transmission line between Bulandshahr and Noida, part of the network intended to carry electricity from Rajasthan’s six-gigawatt Bikaner renewable energy zone. The tender identifies a construction package awaiting contract award, with no confirmed commissioning date in the procurement disclosure.

On November 4, the Union Cabinet approved another ₹14,500 crore in viability-gap funding for 92 gigawatt-hours of grid-scale energy storage.

The proposed capacity comprises 60 gigawatt-hours of pumped hydro storage, 30 gigawatt-hours of batteries and two gigawatt-hours of alternative technologies.

Total investment is estimated at ₹97,600 crore, with government support scheduled from 2026–27 through 2030–31. Project allocations will proceed through competitive bidding.

The Central Electricity Authority expects 1.6 gigawatts of pumped-storage capacity to enter service in 2027–28 and another 6.35 gigawatts in 2028–29. Its October assessment projects cumulative operating capacity of approximately 18.3 gigawatts by March 2029.

Meeting that schedule will require the projects under construction and those advancing through implementation to reach commercial operation within the authority’s stated timelines.