Africa’s Copper Wealth Holds a Bigger Prize as Global Demand Fuels Refining Expansion

Africa’s copper industry is attracting investment beyond mining, with new smelting and refining facilities expanding the region’s processing capacity.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia are at the centre of this development, supplying copper to major industrial markets.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects rising copper demand through 2040.

Electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centres are expected to increase consumption, creating a larger market for processed copper.

Africa already has substantial copper resources, but processing more of the metal locally requires dependable electricity and financing.

New facilities must also compete with established refiners in China and other industrial markets.

Domestic copper consumption remains small compared with regional production, leaving African producers dependent on exports.

The expansion of processing facilities could increase the value of those exports, provided companies can secure buyers and operate at competitive costs.

Africa’s Copper Wealth Strengthens Its Global Supply Advantage

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia account for much of Africa’s copper production, supported by deposits across the Central African Copperbelt.

According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the continent produced approximately 4.49 million tonnes of mined copper in 2025, with output projected to reach 4.95 million tonnes by 2027.

The region’s mineral reserves have attracted investment in processing plants near producing mines.

In the DRC, Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining operate the Kamoa-Kakula complex, where a $1.1 billion smelter began producing copper anodes in December 2025. Its annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes makes it Africa’s largest copper smelter.

Production remains below capacity. Ivanhoe reported 62,072 tonnes of copper anodes in the second quarter of 2026, with the smelter operating at approximately 60% of its design rate. Limited concentrate supply has pushed the target for full-capacity operations to 2028.

Kamoa-Kakula also produced 112,307 tonnes of sulphuric acid during the quarter, providing an additional product for sale to regional mining operations.

The smelter’s performance illustrates the importance of securing sufficient feedstock to sustain processing operations.

As more copper is processed near African mines, access to overseas buyers will become an important factor in determining the commercial returns on new refining investments.

Global Copper Demand Opens Lucrative Markets for African Refiners

Global copper demand is projected to rise from 27.8 million tonnes in 2025 to nearly 35 million tonnes by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.

Electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centres are among the industries expected to drive consumption.

China purchases substantial quantities of copper concentrates, while the United States imports refined copper from Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

European refiners are also purchasing African copper. In February 2026, Trafigura completed the first sale of copper anodes from Kamoa-Kakula to Aurubis for refining in Europe, with shipments routed through Angola’s Lobito corridor.

The profitability of these exports depends partly on processing costs. The IEA reported that benchmark copper smelting treatment charges fell to zero in 2026 as competition for concentrates intensified.

Mining companies with integrated smelting operations have greater control over feedstock supply than independent processors.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global refined copper surplus of 104,000 tonnes in 2026, increasing to 368,000 tonnes in 2027.

Additional supply could put pressure on prices and processing margins, leaving African exporters competing for contracts in a market where long-term consumption growth has yet to produce a sustained shortage.

Africa’s Copper Refining Expansion Creates New Investment Opportunities

Africa’s copper-processing industry has room for further investment. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Stepping Up the Value Chain in Africa report found that the continent captures less than 1% of the value generated by manufacturing clean-energy technologies and their components, despite its mineral resources.

Under the IEA’s High Potential Case, the market value of Africa’s mineral production could increase by nearly 75% to $120 billion by 2040. The estimate covers several minerals, including copper, rather than copper refining alone.

Electricity shortages remain an obstacle to expanding processing operations. Smelters require dependable power, while new projects face high financing and transport costs. These conditions affect production costs and the returns available to investors.

The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 reported a 9% decline in global critical-minerals investment in 2025.

Copper companies, however, increased capital expenditure by 8%, maintaining investment in new capacity despite the broader slowdown.

Africa’s Copper Refining Future Depends on Global Competitiveness

Africa’s copper refiners face growing competition from China and other processing centres. Further expansion will depend on production costs, reliable electricity and sufficient concentrate supplies.

Efforts by the United States and other industrial economies to diversify mineral sourcing could open additional export markets.

African producers will need long-term purchasing agreements to support investment in new facilities.

By 2030, the performance of newly commissioned smelters will provide a clearer indication of Africa’s competitiveness.

Sustained output, profitable operations and access to international buyers will determine how much additional copper-processing investment the continent can attract.