The Middle East Is Losing Its Grip on Global Oil as the Americas Seize a Bigger Share

The war in the Middle East has opened new markets for oil producers in the Americas. The United States, Brazil and Guyana have benefited as refiners look beyond the Persian Gulf for crude, threatening the region’s long-standing position in global oil trade.

In August 2026, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 13.1 million barrels per day from pre-war levels. The disruption sent buyers searching for replacement cargoes, giving exporters outside the Gulf an opening in markets previously served by Middle Eastern producers.

Gulf shipments have since rebounded, although the return of oil to international markets does not guarantee the return of customers. Refineries that have arranged alternative supplies may keep those contracts, particularly while the risk of further disruption remains.

Oil traders are now watching whether American producers can hold on to those sales. Changes in refinery demand, freight rates and the price differences between crude grades could determine where the next gains in global oil trade emerge.

Middle East Oil Disruptions Accelerate Global Supply Shifts

Asian refiners are looking beyond the Persian Gulf as attacks threaten shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain major suppliers, but uncertainty over deliveries has prompted some buyers to review contracts and seek replacement cargoes.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an alternative route to the Red Sea, was also disrupted in September. The route had been carrying more than 5 million barrels per day before the attack, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Brent crude reached $131 a barrel on September 15.

Freight costs have made switching suppliers expensive. Reuters reported that about 80 large oil tankers were tied up in operations around Hormuz in October. Transporting American crude to Asia cost as much as $40 per barrel, leading some refiners to negotiate contracts that include delivery costs.

Latin America has emerged as another source of replacement oil. Kpler reported stronger demand for the region’s medium and heavy crude grades in September. For exporters seeking a larger share of the Asian market, the challenge is to compete with Gulf suppliers once freight costs are included.

Americas Crude Oil Exports Challenge Middle East Dominance

Oil production across North and South America is expected to rise 10% between 2024 and the end of 2026, according to Rystad Energy. U.S. exports of crude and petroleum products to Europe, Asia and Oceania have already increased by 15%, strengthening the region’s position in international energy trade.

The International Energy Agency projected that five major American producers would add 1.4 million barrels per day to non-OPEC+ supply in 2026. Guyana is bringing more offshore capacity online, while investment continues in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale fields. Brazil remains an important supplier despite slower production growth.

Some of the additional oil is reaching new markets. Kpler reported increased Argentine shipments to Asia, while Brazilian cargoes previously destined for China have been redirected to Europe. The changing destinations suggest that exporters are finding buyers beyond their established markets.

Gulf producers retain a freight advantage in Asia, where high transport costs have made American crude less competitive. Recovering Middle Eastern exports could put further pressure on Atlantic suppliers. The price difference between competing crude grades, after delivery costs, will be critical to their ability to retain customers.

Global Oil Prices Face Pressure From Expanding American Supply

Higher crude production in the Americas could put pressure on prices as Gulf exports recover. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts American output at 13.9 million barrels per day in 2026, increasing to 14.3 million in 2027.

OPEC projects an additional 600,000 barrels per day from producers outside its Declaration of Cooperation in 2026. The United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina are expected to account for much of the increase, bringing more crude into competition for refinery orders.

Global demand is weakening. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects consumption to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. Yet inventories stood 509 million barrels below pre-war levels at the end of September, leaving limited reserves to cover another supply interruption.

The EIA forecasts Brent crude averaging $96 per barrel in 2026 and $84 in 2027. A sustained price decline will depend on how quickly inventories recover as American production rises and Middle Eastern shipments return.

Middle East Oil Dominance Faces a Prolonged Threat

Continued disruption in the Middle East would give American oil exporters more time to secure overseas customers. Their gains may last beyond the war if refiners retain alternative suppliers rather than return to Gulf crude when shipping conditions improve.

Africa also stands to benefit. Nigeria, Angola and Libya could attract additional orders from European and Asian refiners. Production shortages, weak infrastructure and high freight costs remain obstacles to securing those contracts.

Nigeria’s position is more complex. The Dangote refinery requires substantial domestic crude supplies, limiting the volume available for export. Higher international prices may boost government revenue, although domestic refining costs could also increase.

A prolonged conflict could strengthen the Americas’ position and create new export opportunities for Africa. The decisive evidence will come when Gulf shipments stabilize. Refiners that continue buying from alternative suppliers would signal a more lasting loss of Middle Eastern market share.