Featured Summary:
- Congo, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are restricting how key minerals leave their markets
- Western governments are increasing investment in African mineral projects as supply concentration remains high
- More capital is moving into processing and transport alongside mine development
- Control of African minerals is becoming tied more closely to the infrastructure built around them
The Democratic Republic of Congo has tightened control over cobalt exports, withdrawing unused quotas and directing part of future supply toward projects linked to domestic processing.
Zimbabwe is preparing to ban lithium concentrate exports from January 2027, while Mozambique has restricted parts of its graphite trade.
The IEA says the number of mineral tariff codes covered by Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023.
Across major critical minerals excluding rare earths, the largest refining country held an average 72% share in 2025, up from 70% in 2023.
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has more than $3 billion tied to critical minerals in Africa. The European Commission has also selected 46 additional strategic raw-material projects.
African governments are imposing tighter conditions on mineral exports as foreign capital moves deeper into the sector.
Congo’s Cobalt Quotas Are Giving Producers More Control Over Supply
Congo remains the world’s dominant cobalt producer. After export restrictions tightened availability, cobalt prices rose and unused quotas were withdrawn for reassignment through a state-controlled pool.
Companies that fail to use their allocations can lose access to future shipments, while part of the available volume is being reserved for projects linked to domestic processing.
Zimbabwe is tightening lithium export rules, and Mozambique has imposed restrictions affecting graphite.
The IEA now lists producer-country export controls among the immediate risks to mineral supply security.
Processing Is Becoming Part of the Mineral Deal
Zimbabwe still lacks enough lithium-processing capacity to handle all available material. Its only operating lithium sulphate plant cannot currently process third-party feedstock, despite about $2 billion of Chinese investment in the sector and additional plants under construction.
The IEA says mining investment is expanding into more countries, while refining and downstream manufacturing remain more concentrated. In several mineral chains, planned processing capacity still falls short of expected mine output.
Madagascar’s Ampasindava rare-earth project includes pilot processing and testing alongside mine development, with U.S. support covering more than extraction alone.
More mineral projects are now being developed with processing capacity attached from the start.
Transport Is Becoming Part of the Competition for African Minerals
The Lobito Corridor is drawing U.S., African and international financing as it connects mineral-producing areas in Congo and Zambia with Angola’s Atlantic coast.
China remains deeply established in African mining and processing, with eastern and southern routes carrying Copperbelt output toward Asian markets.
Western-backed rail projects are adding another export direction from the same producing region.
European and U.S. critical-minerals programmes are also financing transport infrastructure tied directly to mineral production and export.
African Mineral Access Is Becoming Harder to Separate From Industrial Investment
China still dominates refining across several strategically important minerals. In graphite, gallium, manganese and rare earths, the leading refiner controls more than 90% of global supply in several cases.
African governments are placing more processing requirements on mineral projects before exports leave their markets.
Cobalt, lithium and graphite developments are now carrying more local-processing and infrastructure conditions.
Foreign access to African mineral supply is increasingly arriving with an industrial investment requirement attached.
Recent Comments