Africa’s Energy Shock Puts Its Next Harvest at Risk as Fertilizer and Diesel Costs Rise

The United Nations warned on October 14 that disrupted fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a food crisis in parts of Africa and Asia.

The UN proposed a shipping arrangement that could begin operating within seven to ten days of an agreement between Washington and Tehran. Negotiations remain stalled.

Before the conflict, roughly one-third of global seaborne urea trade and nearly half of sulfur shipments passed through Hormuz.

The interruption has threatened supplies of finished fertilizers and raw materials used in their production, potentially delaying deliveries to countries dependent on imports.

Higher diesel costs are adding to expenses for irrigation, farm machinery and food transportation across African markets.

Farmers who miss critical fertilizer-application periods could face lower yields even if shipments resume before the next harvest.

Africa’s Fertilizer Imports Expose Uneven Supply Risks

International urea export prices rose 37% during the first week of the conflict, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC).

The organization reported production suspensions and canceled export contracts among major Middle Eastern fertilizer suppliers, disrupting international trade in agricultural inputs.

Middle Eastern suppliers accounted for 19% of fertilizer imports into 18 sub-Saharan African countries between 2020 and 2022, according to AfricaFertilizer. Zambia, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire and Malawi depend on imported fertilizers.

Nigeria and Egypt have substantial domestic urea production, while Morocco is a major phosphate producer.

Nigeria imported $227.7 million worth of fertilizer in 2025, with Morocco, China and Russia among its leading suppliers, according to World Bank trade data.

Its domestic urea industry supplies nitrogen fertilizer, but fertilizer manufacturers and blenders still import phosphate and potash products.

The African Development Bank warned in April that delayed fertilizer shipments could threaten agricultural production in countries dependent on imports.

Available reporting documents higher international prices and canceled contracts, although the extent of physical shortages in individual African markets remains unclear.

Fertilizer Delays Threaten Harvests Beyond 2026

Maize planting runs broadly from October to December in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and South Africa.

Fertilizer deliveries delayed beyond early crop-development periods could affect yields in the 2026–27 growing season.

Across much of the Sahel, millet and sorghum were planted during June and July, with harvesting generally taking place between October and November. Fertilizer arriving now would be too late for most crops nearing harvest.

Kenya’s October-to-December short rains support another planting season in parts of the country, ahead of the main long-rains season beginning around March.

In Tanzania’s bimodal rainfall areas, the Masika growing season occurs earlier in the year, with harvesting typically beginning around July.

The Food and Agriculture Organization warned in May that fertilizer shortages could reduce yields in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

Farmers facing unaffordable inputs may reduce application rates, cultivate less land or switch crops.

Deliveries arriving after critical growth stages cannot fully recover the yield potential lost through missed fertilizer applications.

Higher Diesel Costs Threaten Africa’s Food Supply Chains

Diesel prices rose 86% in Nigeria between mid-January and mid-June 2026, according to July research by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Tanzania, Ethiopia, Lesotho and Liberia recorded increases exceeding 50%, while Algeria and Angola kept pump prices broadly unchanged through government pricing controls.

Across 18 African countries examined by IFPRI, transport inflation was approximately six percentage points above its previous-year norm.

Food inflation was about one percentage point above normal. IFPRI found no consistent increase in staple-food prices beyond seasonal patterns during the period examined.

Nigeria’s agricultural supply chain depends on diesel for irrigation, machinery, milling and transporting crops to market.

IFPRI’s assessment identified higher prices for rice, wheat flour and garri associated with the energy shock.

Kenya raised its regulated maximum diesel price in October following higher import costs. In countries maintaining administered prices or subsidies, consumers have been partly shielded from increases at the pump, leaving governments to bear additional costs.

A weaker harvest in 2027 could increase food-import requirements in countries already facing expensive agricultural transport.

Continued high diesel prices would add to the cost of moving domestic crops and imported food to consumers.

Africa’s Harvest Outlook Hinges on When Hormuz Reopens

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a November summit with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by Reuters on October 19.

Trump has also announced a deal to purchase Russian diesel and signed an order waiving key sanctions on Moscow. The sanctions relief has already contributed to lower oil futures, although the proposed summit remains unconfirmed.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on October 18 that Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remained on the table.

Negotiations are stalled over U.S. sanctions, the blockade of Iranian ports, regional hostilities and demands concerning Iran’s nuclear program.

Lower energy prices would offer some relief to African agricultural producers, but would not secure fertilizer deliveries through Hormuz.

Farmers who miss critical application periods could face reduced yields even after shipments resume.

For the next planting cycles, the unresolved question is whether fertilizer will reach farms in time to protect harvests and limit food costs in 2027.