Africa’s Fertilizer Strength Has a Potash Problem as Global Supply Risks Rise

Nigeria exported more than $750 million of urea to Brazil in 2025 while importing virtually none of the product itself.

The country still bought about $228 million of fertilizer from abroad, including supplies from Morocco, China, Russia and Canada.

Morocco supplies phosphate products across the continent, while Egypt and Algeria add large ammonia and urea output.

Potash remains scarce in many African markets, and NPK producers still rely on imported nutrient inputs where local supply falls short.

Kenya imported more than $453 million of fertilizer in 2025, including urea from Qatar and Russia. South Africa imported more than $1.08 billion overall.

The import dependence sits in the nutrients and markets that Africa’s existing production does not cover.

Africa’s Fertilizer Strength Stops Short at Potash

Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria have built substantial nitrogen industries around natural gas, giving Africa meaningful urea and ammonia capacity.

Morocco provides another major advantage through phosphate, where its reserve base and processing industry support large volumes of fertilizer for African and export markets.

Potash is a different constraint. Commercial production depends on economically viable potassium deposits, and those are far less developed across much of Africa than the gas and phosphate resources already supporting nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer.

That leaves many African NPK producers dependent on imported potassium even when the other two main nutrients can be sourced regionally.

The gap is especially important for compound fertilizers, where local urea or phosphate does not remove the need for potash in the final blend.

Africa’s production base is therefore broad enough to supply major parts of the fertilizer market, but potassium remains one of the nutrients most likely to pull producers back into global trade.

Canada, Russia and Belarus Dominate Africa’s Potash Supply

Canada produced about one-third of the world’s potash in 2024. Russia and Belarus lifted the three-country share to about 70.5% of global output and almost 77% of exports.

Canada shipped 22.9 million tonnes that year, close to 39% of internationally traded potash.

Most production is concentrated in Saskatchewan, where large commercial deposits support some of the industry’s biggest mining operations.

Russia and Belarus remain major exporters backed by extensive reserves. China, Israel and Jordan contribute additional supply, but their export volumes are significantly smaller.

African buyers are therefore sourcing potash from a market dominated by a small number of producers outside the continent.

Africa’s Potash Imports Depend on Long Supply Routes

Canadian potash bound for Africa moves through Atlantic ports. Russian and Belarusian cargoes rely on rail links to export terminals before entering international shipping routes.

Global potash exports fell by about 10 million tonnes in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted trade. Shipments recovered to 59.2 million tonnes by 2024.

South Africa continues to import potassic fertilizer from Russia and Canada, leaving part of its supply dependent on overseas mines and ports.

Higher freight costs, restricted port access or new trade barriers can raise costs in African fertilizer markets before cargoes reach local blenders and distributors.

Congo Holds the Potash Africa Has Yet to Bring to Market

The Republic of Congo holds one of Africa’s most advanced large potash deposits. Kore Potash’s Kola project in the Sintoukola Basin has proved and probable reserves of 152.4 million tonnes grading 32.5% potassium chloride, with planned annual output of about 2.2 million tonnes of muriate of potash over a 23-year mine life.

Production has yet to begin. Kore reported no mining or construction activity in the first half of 2026 as the project worked toward financial close and sought a mine operator and additional partners. The proposed funding package is about $2.2 billion.

Kola still requires mine development, processing facilities and transport infrastructure before commercial shipments can start.

Its Atlantic location would give future cargoes access to African buyers and overseas markets. Kore has identified Brazil among the destinations where Kola potash could compete.

Ethiopia also moved to develop its potash resources with a new mining agreement in March 2026, while other deposits on the continent remain further from commercial production.

If Kola enters production, Congo would become a new African source of a nutrient that many fertilizer producers on the continent still import.

Africa already has established nitrogen and phosphate industries. Potash is the major fertilizer nutrient where its mineral resources have yet to translate into comparable commercial output.