Featured Summary:
- Copper supply growth is pulling global buyers toward Zambia and the DRC
- The DRC already ranks among the world’s major producers, while Zambia carries more of the next project pipeline
- Rail, power and processing are becoming decisive to what buyers actually pay for African copper
- More local processing is changing how much of the copper trade leaves Africa as raw concentrate
Zambia and the DRC are taking a larger share of the copper supply the global market still needs.
The IEA projects a roughly 25% primary deficit by 2035, even after new projects in both countries improved the outlook from last year.
The DRC is already one of the world’s largest producers, while Zambia ranks eighth globally and still holds substantial undeveloped potential.
Capital is moving into the infrastructure needed to get more of that copper to market.
Fresh AfDB financing for Zambia’s connection to the Lobito Corridor is adding to a route already backed by major U.S. investment, improving access from the Copperbelt to Atlantic export markets.
More of the next copper supply is expected to come from Zambia and the DRC.
New Copper Projects Are Expanding Supply in the DRC and Zambia
Kamoa-Kakula has already pushed the DRC deeper into large-scale copper production. Its Phase 3 concentrator lifted annual capacity above 600,000 tonnes, while the complex has added on-site smelting and further mine improvements aimed at raising output.
The country is no longer relying on future projects alone; more copper is already coming from assets that have moved through expansion.
Zambia is carrying more of the next investment wave. First Quantum’s Kansanshi S3 expansion has entered commercial production, Barrick is advancing the Lumwana Super Pit, and KoBold Metals is developing Mingomba, one of the largest new copper projects in the country.
The IEA now counts projects in Zambia and the DRC among the reasons its projected 2035 copper deficit has narrowed from about 30% to 25%.
Lobito Is Opening a New Route for Africa’s Copper Supply
Copper from Zambia and the DRC still travels long distances before it reaches an export port.
The Lobito Corridor gives the Copperbelt a westbound route through Angola to the Atlantic, shortening access to Europe and the Americas.
The AfDB’s latest package adds $255 million in lending and a $10 million grant to Zambia’s connection, alongside the wider U.S.-backed investment already supporting the corridor.
As mine output rises, rail capacity and port access are becoming part of the copper supply equation.
Lobito gives Zambia and the DRC another route out of Central Africa, reducing reliance on longer eastern and southern corridors.
More production can reach the global market only when those routes can carry it.
Smelting Costs Are Reshaping the Price of African Copper Supply
The IEA says benchmark copper treatment charges fell to $0 per tonne in 2026, while spot charges have remained negative since 2024 as smelters compete for limited concentrate.
China now holds about 50% of global copper-smelting capacity, after accounting for more than 90% of the growth in capacity since 2005.
Zambia and the DRC are adding more processing closer to their own mines, which changes how much value leaves the region with the raw concentrate.
Zambia already has established smelting capacity around operations such as Kansanshi, while the DRC is expanding local processing around large projects including Kamoa-Kakula.
The cost of copper supply therefore depends not only on mine output, but on how much of that metal can be treated and refined before it enters the global market.
Africa Is Keeping More Value Before Copper Leaves
The DRC is tightening concentrate exports while Zambia already sends much of its copper abroad as refined cathode.
Zambia’s temporary export waivers after smelter outages also show where the limits remain: producing more copper does not guarantee that every additional tonne can be processed locally.
New investment in smelting, power and transport is being built around that constraint.
As those projects come online, more of Africa’s copper supply can leave the Copperbelt closer to finished metal.
Processing and logistics revenue can stay in the region longer, while export routes become part of the competition for the next wave of global demand.
The value is moving beyond the mine itself and into the chain that gets the metal to market.
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