BIS Flags Circular Financing Risks Behind the Global AI Investment Boom

More than half of the disclosed investment value entering AI companies between 2021 and 2025 involved other AI firms as investors, according to research highlighted by Alexandre Tombini on November 3.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identified a growing practice in which technology suppliers invest in businesses that also purchase their computing services and equipment.

The study examined 1,246 companies using PitchBook and FactSet records. Firms with commercial ties accounted for 46.4% of disclosed AI-to-AI investment value, although they represented just 16.1% of deals.

The figures capture commercial relationships over five years and count entire financing rounds, rather than individual investors’ contributions.

In February, OpenAI announced $110 billion in new investment, including $50 billion from Amazon and $30 billion from Nvidia. The announcement accompanied new computing agreements, including an additional $100 billion commitment to Amazon Web Services over eight years.

The disclosed agreements establish both investment and commercial ties, without identifying how individual investments will fund purchases.

The borrowing extends beyond these partnerships. An October 27 BIS report recorded $222 billion in bond issuance by five major technology companies through September 2026.

Another $75 billion to $100 billion had been raised through infrastructure financing vehicles, bringing institutional investors into debt arrangements supported by data-centre leases and guarantees.

AI Suppliers Invest in Their Own Customers

Nvidia bought $2 billion in CoreWeave shares in January 2026. The cloud provider also issued $350 million in shares to OpenAI under an $11.9 billion computing agreement. No cash was received from the share issuance, which will reduce revenue recognised under the contract.

Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, valued at $135 billion following its October 2025 restructuring. The AI developer also committed to purchasing an additional $250 billion in Azure cloud services.

In November 2025, Anthropic announced investment commitments of up to $10 billion from Nvidia and $5 billion from Microsoft. The agreement included $30 billion in Azure computing purchases and plans for one gigawatt of Nvidia-powered infrastructure. The full investment amounts have not been confirmed as disbursed.

AMD has granted OpenAI and Meta warrants to acquire up to 160 million shares each, tied to chip purchases and share-price targets. Its November 4 filing confirmed that none had vested by September 26, although the company had recognised a $1.2 billion warrant liability.

AI Infrastructure Borrowing Draws in Private Credit

On October 26, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced a $63 billion financing deal for Anthropic’s computing equipment. A separate company will buy Broadcom chips and lease them to Anthropic, with the banks arranging senior debt.

Blue Owl Capital financed Meta’s Louisiana data centre through $27.3 billion in secured notes maturing in 2049. The debt is backed by project lease agreements. In November, S&P maintained its A+ rating but changed the outlook to negative.

CoreWeave obtained a $2.6 billion equipment loan in August from lenders including JPMorgan and MUFG. The loan matures in 2031, with interest set at SOFR plus 5.5 percentage points. Its customer contracts average three years, shorter than the loan term.

Meta also raised $15 billion directly through bonds issued on November 3, maturing between 2031 and 2056. Unlike project-level loans, these are corporate obligations. The BIS has warned that such borrowing exposes banks and institutional investors to AI infrastructure risks.

AI Investment Risks Reach Equity and Credit Markets

AI-linked technology stocks hold a large share of global equity markets. T. Rowe Price reported that the ten largest companies represented 25.4% of the MSCI All Country World Index in September 2026, up from 14.7% in 1999.

The International Monetary Fund reviewed 14 AI financing deals since 2023, identifying $300 billion in equity, $650 billion in debt and $1.4 trillion in future revenue commitments. It warned that weaker AI earnings could affect stock valuations and credit markets.

Fidelity reported that AI-related companies accounted for 6.2% of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index in August, up from 4.2% in 2025. Their contribution to credit risk exceeded that of the six largest banks.

FTSE Russell found that AI infrastructure credit spreads reached 119 basis points in October, against 86 basis points for the broader investment-grade market. The BIS reported that AI financing announcements had so far caused limited, short-lived effects on wider bond markets.

AI Financing Faces Its Next Investment Test

IREN still needs $6 billion to complete its $15 billion spending plan for fiscal 2027. Its November 5 results showed that cash, committed financing and customer prepayments cover $9 billion. The company also delayed its $4 billion annualised revenue target to early 2027.

Riot Platforms signed a 15-year data-centre lease worth about $28 billion. Its Texas project targets 400 megawatts by September 2027. The company plans to use project loans to cover tenant reimbursements, with rent credits as an alternative if financing is unavailable.

TeraWulf secured Google’s credit support for its Kentucky project, backed by $19 billion in lease commitments. Fluor expects to deliver the first facilities in late 2027, but long-term financing remains outstanding.

Oracle priced $10 billion in bonds and $10 billion in shares on November 2. It expects positive free cash flow in the second half of fiscal 2028. Upcoming earnings, financing decisions and construction deadlines will show how much of the planned AI expansion can proceed.